The method
The odds are math, not mood.
The Circuit Method engineers revenue outcomes on scientific principles: written rules, honest odds, proven cause.
Most revenue frameworks sell capability. The Circuit Method sells calibration: knowing how often your stated odds come true.
The agent drafts. The rules decide. The odds are math, not mood.
Written rules and fixed scores, joined to an agent that only drafts, make a revenue system reliable. You write the rules. You still close the switch.
Deterministic means the same inputs always give the same result. Probabilistic means the agent works from odds. The agent may draft. It does not get to change the rule or the score.
What makes it different
Recorded, Measured, and Proven.
- Standard
- Recorded
- What it means in practice
- The rule and the approval are written down, so anyone can audit a decision.
- Standard
- Measured
- What it means in practice
- Stated odds are scored later against outcomes, exposing forecast bias over time.
- Standard
- Proven
- What it means in practice
- Teams separate credit from cause. Attribution shows what was nearby; the method asks what changed the result.
The Tiebreaker
The Tiebreaker is a score. The Switch reads it when a lead needs a route.
It is not the Breaker. The Breaker is written gates plus a named person's recorded approval before anything reaches a customer or moves money. The Tiebreaker never sends the note. It only scores the lead so a written rule can route it.
The Tiebreaker is Bayesian and deterministic. Bayesian means updating your odds as evidence comes in. Deterministic means the same inputs always give the same score. Every score shows why.
Three inputs go in. Noel writes the weights. This page does not invent them.
- Attribution. Which touches moved the lead. Nearby is not enough. Causal means proving what actually caused the result.
- Velocity. How fast the lead moves, set next to deals that closed.
- Impact. What a win is worth.
What the score shows
Same inputs always give the same score. The score shows the touches that counted, the pace against deals that closed, and what the win is worth. The Switch reads that score and the written rule, then routes the lead. The agent may draft the note that follows. The rule still decides.
One loop
The agent drafts. The rules decide.
Something comes in. You write the decision and the odds. The work is a draft. Written gates and a named person's recorded approval stand before anything reaches a customer or moves money. The result comes back, and you ask what caused it.
01
What comes in
Signal
Signal means what comes in.
02
The decision
Switch
Switch means the decision, written down, with the odds.
03
The work, still a draft
Current
Current means the work, still a draft.
04
Written gates, a named yes
Breaker
Breaker means written gates, plus a named person's recorded approval, before anything goes out.
05
The result comes back
Ground
Ground means the result comes back.
Four words
A closed circuit is the full loop. The result came back and got scored.
An open circuit is built, and not yet proved.
A short circuit skips a gate. The usual skip is sending the draft.
Owner load is the minutes a day this takes from you. The aim is a small load, with the call still yours. This site does not invent that number.
Closed circuit
A full loop. Signal came in, the decision was written, the work moved as a draft, a named person recorded the approval on the written gate, and the outcome came back to be scored.
Open circuit
Built, not proved. The route exists, and maybe the work even reached a customer, but the forecast was never scored and the cause was never asked.
Short circuit
Skipping a gate. The usual case is a draft that reaches a customer, or money that moves, without the written gate and a named person's recorded approval.
Owner load
The minutes a day the system takes from the owner. The aim is a small load, with the owner still making the call. The number is yours to measure. This site does not supply one.
Start at the first stage. One lead. One loop.