The odds
Say the odds. Then check them.
Bayesian means updating your odds as evidence comes in.
On the forecast call you say what you believe will happen. Honest odds are odds you are willing to score when the period closes. If calls you labeled with a similar confidence do not land at a similar rate, the call was a guess.
Start with the odds you would have said
A prior is the odds you would have said before this new fact. It comes from deals like this one, and from your judgment. You choose it.
If a model chooses the prior and you cannot say why, you do not have a forecast. You have a suggestion wearing a number.
Let the new fact move the odds
A signal arrives. A reply. A meeting held. A missing buyer. A stall. Each one should move the odds by how much it actually changes deals like this one.
The posterior is the odds after that fact. On the forecast call, the posterior is the number you say out loud.
The practice sandbox lets you watch a simulated update. The ratios there are for practice. They are not your book of business.
The shape of the test
Draw the odds you stated one way, and how often those calls happened the other way. The honest line is the diagonal. Nothing is plotted below. This site does not invent a score.
The odds live on the switch, beside the rule. Next, ask what actually caused the result.